[adamrezich]

> 200/1M

I understand the metric but we don't even have a million people in the state. so when you compare ratios it might look high when comparing to other populations, but in reality, it's remarkable at how low the numbers actually are, again, given the difference in mask policy.

again, there was no summer spike due to tourism. there was no spike due to almost half a million additional people riding in from out of state for the Sturgis Rally (temporarily significantly increasing our population!). iirc, two people died after returning home afterwards. very few bikers wore masks anywhere. more Rally-goers died from traffic accidents (as is usual for the Rally) than died from the 'vid.

[RobAtticus]

You can change it to 20/100k if you wish, it doesn't really make a difference.

SD case counts per 1M on selected dates:

Jul 15 2020 - 463

Aug 15 2020 - 725

Sep 15 2020 - ~1800

Doubling in a month seems like a spike to me.

[adamrezich]

are you inferring that the rise in case counts in September is somehow correlated to the summer tourism season, which is pretty well over by September? I see no evidence that points to this. surely if the summer tourism season caused a spike in cases(!), you would see it during the summer tourism season, and not afterward?

[RobAtticus]

You keep talking about Sturgis, which ended on Aug 16. There is known incubation time between contact and testing positive, and even by 10 days later (Aug 26) the rate was at ~1200. Also July -> Aug was a 55% increase in cases as well, even before that, which coincides more with summer.

I'm not going to say definitively what caused what here, but your anecdotal recollection of what happened in SD is not really supported by the numbers.