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by thorwasdfasdf 1883 days ago
We need more data on what prices really are. things like the big mac index, that measure prices independently and actually report just the prices, without quality adjustments. This will give us a good upper bound on what inflation actually is, instead of having to rely on the CPI's questionable "adjustments"
2 comments

Shadowstats tracks the inflation numbers using the government's old formulas (pre-gaming)

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

These numbers don’t seem plausible. Compared to nominal GDP statistics, they would imply negative real growth since 1980. This is incompatible with some periods of low unemployment that occurred since 1980 (eg. the late 90s). It implies that the US has constantly been in a recession for decades. Also conflicts with other hard-to fake stats like increased power generation and freight shipping since 1980.

Edit: found this quote from the creator of Shadowstats that they don’t actually calculate their own inflation numbers, but instead add a fudge factor to the official numbers. http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/shadowstats_res

Wow, thanks for digging that up, shines a very different light on the shadowstats site which gets thrown around a lot (and I'm guilty as well..).
Technological improvements make this so hard to measure, even if we ignore the temptation to game the numbers.

New products, better products, many old products replaced by new ones... it’s so much more complicated than the classical economics textbook case of guns & butter.