[hnick]

> marketed as a get rich quick scheme

I am seeing bus stop ads here in Sydney with a tagline from a BTC exchange saying something like "If you're seeing bitcoin on a billboard, it's time to buy".

Now I'm hardly an astute investor but I thought the usual rule is that if your cabbie starts talking about it, it's time to get out of the market.

[Spooky23]

Definitely true. During the big silver run a few years ago, the owner of a local Lebanese restaurant made an investment in a solid silver statue of his late dog. That was the sign of the near peak.

I think crypto has plenty of run left. It’s still a pain to buy. When your dentist is loading up his 401k with Bitcoin ETFs, that’s going to be the peak.

[DonHopkins]

Reminds me of a billboard I saw in the London tube once, with the big bold title "BEAT THE CROWDS" over a photo of lots of people crowded uncomfortably together on the platform. I wasn't sure if it was encouraging people to get up early and commute to their jobs, or to get a job with the police hitting lots of people with billy clubs. Either way, it was about crowd control.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sztf4hcGrB4&ab_channel=WestL...

It is said that the people are revolting!

You said it. They stink on ice!

[sneak]

> Now I'm hardly an astute investor but I thought the usual rule is that if your cabbie starts talking about it, it's time to get out of the market.

My stripper friends first started asking me if they should buy cryptocurrencies in 2017. Had you bought btc at the $17k it was priced then, you'd have more than tripled your money in the following four years.

[SuoDuanDao]

Well now, sex workers were early adopters of crypto across the board. I don't think that's an example of the 'cabbie rule', they were probably more interested in the technology than most who buy.

[mrits]

If your cabbie understands BTC you might have a point. We aren't even close to there yet

[throwawaywrench]

>the usual rule is that if your cabbie starts talking about it, it's time to get out of the market.

>If your cabbie understands BTC you might have a point. We aren't even close to there yet

The point is that the cabbie likely doesn't understand BTC. When an asset class becomes so popular that people who have no idea how it works are putting money into it and loudly campaigning for others to do the same that is a sign that you are in a bubble.

It doesn't necessarily mean that the bubble is about to pop. Some bubbles can last decades. See real estate in a variety of locations around the world as an example. However lot of dumb money (people who don't understand what they're buying) flowing into a thing because of fomo can be a predictor that prices are unsustainable.

[mrits]

"When an asset class becomes so popular that people who have no idea how it works are putting money into it and loudly campaigning for others to do the same that is a sign that you are in a bubble."

It absolutely isn't a sign a of a bubble. There aren't many people that understand what they are investing in be it currency or Google. The success of the investment has nothing to do with the cabbies understanding. Taking his advice does.

[junippor]

Understanding doesn't come into this. Most people don't understand money any farther than $5 + $5 = $10, and it still works really well. Unlike bitcoin.