[ben_w]

15 years ago, I was extremely concerned about CO2. Now? CO2 is the single major environmental issue that I think is now certain to work out fine.

Why? Because PV and wind are now the cheapest forms of energy, because even when you add the cost of batteries those are still cheaper than coal and oil, and because the factories to make them are being made as quickly as possible because the eco-friendly solution is so much cheaper than fossil fuels.

The current trend line for PV is an exponential that started in 1992, going up by a factor of ~9000 in 29 years. Keep it up just until the end of this decade and all power — electric, heating, transport; domestic, industrial — is PV by around 2030, and the only reason to expect reality to fall short is that transitioning the final few bits is going to be harder than the first few bits.

I’m still worried about biodiversity losses, phosphorus, antibiotic resistance, etc., but not about CO2.

[AstralStorm]

2030 is easily way past due date, and fossil fuel deployments have increased lately too.

[ben_w]

While it isn’t ideal, there is no hard cut off point between “that’s fine” and “we’re screwed”.

And the recent CO2 emission trend is irrelevant compared to 37%/year compound growth for PV. Second half of the chessboard and all that.

[Isinlor]

You should not focus on the easiest emissions to eliminate.

The issue is with the most difficult.

Some 10% of our emissions are from steel and cement. There are no cheap green solutions here.

[dillondoyle]

Here's a chart from the EPA. says ag 10%, transport 29%.

Ag is very scary to me. another article from today on first ever drought declaration for the CO river.

How much unsustainable water use in the west is used for 'wrong' crops (or just should be none at all)? And how much from huge population growth in hot deserts just getting hotter? Meat?

And is it even possible in the near (20 years) future to for instance change air and sea transport (those giant tankers). Maybe could move to autonomous smaller ships that use sail / electric combo but batteries are heavier than oil per unit of power right? cool startup idea.

I'm so pessimistic lately feeling totally powerless and that even if we collectively get it together, we might not be able to pull it off in time.

I think it might come down to whether or not this all causes a new world wide catastrophic event to force change. Ideally realizing climate change is that event before it goes off the walls. But maybe some confrontation like wealth inequality or 'west' verse CCP (even cold to spur competition).

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emis...

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-west-prepares...

[ben_w]

Focusing on the easiest gives us breathing room for the hardest. And in any case, I’m not going to solve any of the problems as I’m a software engineer rather than a civil or electrical or chemical engineer.