[rakhodorkovsky]

It's the critical question. The time frame is critical for reasoning about alignment and what to do now.

If you expect AGI to happen tomorrow, you throw up your hands in despair or exhilaration, if you expect it in a hundred years, you might also throw up your hands, but it's a different picture; a hundred years of development will see the development of new technologies transformative in their own right.

This excellent blog post hones in on this question: https://fantasticanachronism.com/2021/03/23/two-paths-to-the...