[kasey_junk]

To be fair I go for walks in the park in a Chicago neighborhood that used to house nuclear rocket launch sites. This is near the lake in a really nice park. The Cold War was weird that way. And as someone who was still in school near the tail end of it, I’d say I’m not really worried about a large scale invasion because I always presumed I’d die very early in either a first strike or second strike scenario.

I’d love to know what scenarios the French military think are likely that don’t involve large scale nuclear weapon deployments.

[matkoniecz]

Estonia or Finland getting "liberated" by totally not Russian army?

[hef19898]

I think nobody will go nuclear over Ukraine or Syria. At least not intentionally. That might be different for NATO members, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan the Himalayas (India, China and Pakistan are nuclear powers). But before that, you have a conventional warfare phase. Being decisive enough could be a scenario in which the other side prefers to fight another day instead of using nukes. At least worth war games and maneuvers. Especially when you want to send a message to the Russians.

Putin seems to be testing the waters with Nato and the west, as is China. Putin got away with a lot lately. He is smart, so I just hope that doesn't overplay his hand. Because this kind of stuff can easily escalate. And today we aren't at our toes anymore the same way we were during the cold war, being aware of the risk goves pause sometimes.

[lacogubik]

I think you are overestimating Putin's abilities. I'm not sure it was such a smart move with the war in the Ukraine.

Ukraine used to be divided in perception of Russia and it never had strong national identity. Eastern half of country was very pro-Russian. People spoke Russian, watched Russian tv and longed for Soviet times. Now it is very different, see [0] on how perception has changed and lot more people identify as Ukrainian. Side effect of the war in the east of Ukraine is that their defense budget more than tripled and its army is much more experienced and bigger than before.

Lost their hearts and made them much better in defending themselves in the process.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia–Ukraine_relations#In_Uk...