[throwaway84798]

> One thing that struck me is that in both China and the USA, the idea of a war close to home is not a thing. Nobody considers it to be a remote possibility, and it isn't.

It's a bit surprising that Chinese citizens would have that attitude at the same time as PRC leadership engages in brinksmanship over the status of Taiwan. Taiwan is one of the world's most significant potential "flashpoints", and it factors heavily in the military planning of the US, Japan, and South Korea.

Inland provinces might be very far removed from potential danger, but I wouldn't be so confident if I lived in Fujian or elsewhere on the coast.

[throw543477]

I’ll add my own observation as someone in Taiwan. The vast majority of people here also don’t really believe a war with the Mainland will happen any time soon.

Yes, people will casually talk about it, our politicians will occasionally bring it up, and our media will sometimes cover it, but more local events take precedence.

For example, for the past week, the train crash that claimed 49 lives has been the main focus, despite the increase in fighter jets flying near our ADIZ.

If you ask people what their future plans are, the idea of a possible war doesn’t really factor into their planning.

Now there was a time it did. In 1996, before the first democratic election and again in 2000 when former President Chen was elected.

Back then there was a genuine fear and people were preparing for the worst. Maybe everyone is just used to it now.

[throwaway84798]

My Taiwanese friends seem to have the same attitude. I think it's a combination of either naivety or fatalism. The PLAN is clearly making a massive investment in amphibious warfare vessels. The odds of a cross-straight invasion are certainly not 100%, but they are definitely not low enough to discount.

This post from Tanner Greer is a good deep dive of the political attitude towards the issue within Taiwan: https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2020/09/why-i-fear-for-t....

[helij]

It's people from elswehere actually wishing for Taiwan and China to go to war. They like to fantasize about them going to war until the last Taiwanese and Chinese. Pretty disgusting.

[refurb]

Indeed. And the Japanese invasion that lasted 8 years including WW2 isn’t that long ago. Nor the border skirmishes with the USSR, the war with Vietnam in 1979.

I agree that China has enough force to make any invasion difficult but it’s certainly a risk of being attacked at home.