[jariel]

I live in Quebec and would summarily disagree with this assessment.

Your statement about the failure curfew policy and closures is definitely not true.

Have a look at the data [1] (Select: Quebec and change the timeframe to include 'all time'.

The original closures in January had a radically positive effect in reducing spread, and there were many more measures in place than merely curfew.

You directly contradict yourself by indicating 'opening up restos schools was a bad decision' when in the preceding statement you literally said that the policies 'had no effect'. They clearly did.

Schools have been opened in many places in the world, and are generally not considered to be superspreading locations - the difference 'now' is not COVID v1, rather, it's COVID v1.1 and v1.2 (i.e. other variants) which seem to be affecting young people at considerably higher rates.

The policy here is not hugely different than most places in the world.

[1] https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirustracker/

[mardifoufs]

Except you could see cases went down in a very similar way in places with no curfew around that same time period. It's asinine to credit the curfews for that. Unless you also don't mind blaming the current uptrend on... Curfews too? Because otherwise it's just an unfalsifiable hypothesis :

1) if cases go down it's thanks to Legault and his "audacious measures" like curfews

2) if cases go up the population is to blame but the measures still work and we just need more of them

[jariel]

There were curfews all over Quebec, and Quebec's Jan 1. policies had the most precipitous drop in cases in any province in Canada at any time except the 'shelter in place' orders.

Your '1 and 2' points are not relevant speculation - and I don't care one bit about Legault or his government, it's besides the point.

The policies across Canada and most of Europe for that matter are not dramatically different.

[mardifoufs]

Why are you only comparing to the rest of Canada? The drop also happened in the US. And in Europe. Also why aren't the curfews working anymore?

Also, I'm not sure how attributing any benefit to completely unproven NPI that the government literally admitted to putting in place because it "sounded good and it sent message" rather than based on any scientific data isn't the actual speculation here.

[sudosysgen]

You're batching together policies to make the curfew look good by proxy.

All analysis that isolates the curfew as a singular NPI show no discernible advantage, and the government admitted to having no evidence it's useful at all.

[sudosysgen]

Please don't put words in my mouth.

I didn't ever say that any policy had no effects except the curfew.

>Schools have been opened in many places in the world, and are generally not considered to be superspreading locations

You are simply wrong on this point. Quebec contact tracing data shows "Education" to be the #2 category for source of infection in the last two months : https://www.quebec.ca/en/health/health-issues/a-z/2019-coron...

>The original closures in January had a radically positive effect in reducing spread, and there were many more measures in place than merely curfew.

I never disputed the good effects of the closures in January. I disputed the impact of the curfew solely. You will alos notice in the data after January that the category of infection sources that fell the most is actually "Living and care environemnts", which is where healthcare is placed - a major driver of infection that was eliminated via vaccination.