[kolbe]

I think it’s more likely the companies will thrive, but that the CCP will keep them on a tight leash. Jack Ma will be marginalized and replaced with a CCP insider. The company will continue to be a monopoly with de facto support from the CCP. I think the only reason they’re even in the current predicament is that Ma publicly insulted other well-connected financial firms, and Xi started to believe that Ma was stepping out of line, and wanted to make an example of him. Alibaba itself is too important to China, but Ma is mostly expendable.

[ksec]

Just to expand on this a bit.

>Jack Ma will be marginalized and replaced with a CCP insider.

Jack Ma is an CCP insider. I think it would be better described as "trusted" CCP insider.

Alibaba ( And Tencent ) already has those CCP insider within the company. ANT less so before, but will now surely get it if that is not already the case.

[jpgvm]

Jack Ma had already stepped away from Alibaba. Which is also why the crackdown isn't that harsh on Alibaba itself but is rather focused on ANT which Ma is much more actively involved with. Additionally ANT is the point of contention as the CCP finds anything that muddles with credit or deposits to drastically undermine the iron fist on monetary policy.

I agree in broad strokes that tech firms will thrive now. This fine shows both the intent and the level of severity of policy now which were both previously unknowns. Market hates unknowns and often very pessimistically prices in risk.

[mahkeiro]

Jack Ma retired completely from Alibaba in 2018....