[totony]

1 in ~10 million seems to be the average risk of an american to die from air plane, so, in your lifetime (100 years, if you live to 100 - average lifespan is 80 it looks like), that goes up to 1-(9,999,999/10,000,000)^100 ~ 1 in 100k

Since that number is about the average risk of an american to die (and not the risk per flight), using it to calculate the risk per flight is erroneous

I think?

[pcurve]

Actually the 1 in 10 million figure I used is based on number of fatal crash per flight. I thought it was roughly 1 in 10 million flights ending in fatal crash, but that was couple years ago. It's actually more like 1 in 3.7 million flights. so if you take 100 of those flights, I figured the odds would be 1 in 37,000.

Anyway, happy to be corrected.

[totony]

You might be right, but from cursory look [1] [2], there were 300 fatalities / 5000 millions passenger ~ 1 / 17 millions for 2019

so your probability of dying from one flight (all of the world considered - way lower for US afaics) looks to be 1 in 17 millions in 2019

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/263443/worldwide-air-tra... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/564717/airline-industry-...