[joeter]

$4b seems much too high to me as well. facebook has two main values that are only valuable due to high number of users.

1- source of contact - substitutes include: old aol, aim, email, ichat, ect

2- representation of self to world - substitutes include myspace, most social networks, ect

asian markets have different preferences for representation of self than those facebook emphasizes.

facebook is having troubling scaling globally AND they plan to monetize on only advertising.

those employees made out nicely.

[netcan]

True, and neither of those are money-makers. The whole 'we'll make money off it with advertising later' has failed many times. Search is the exception not the rule.

Until I actually saw some innovative advertising method making advertisers money and getting an excited response in that community, I'd be sceptical that they can do more with a pageview then NYT.com or About.com or any other 'site.'

At banner ad monetisation rates, that would probably put them at around the $50m - $500m p/y mark.