[ghaff]

>as I doubt anyone really thinks it's flat out impossible... just really difficult.

You see a few people saying we need AGI but yeah. I've definitely been a skeptic but mostly in the vein of it needing decades, not single digit years. And the transition to even a true L4 system is going to be hard.

That said, we seen a lot of progress and even over the past ten years, there's been a lot of progress on assistive driving system as well as field work on actual self-driving.

I suspect that machine-assisted driving will continue to get better, albeit with issues associated with humans increasingly not really paying attention. But I expect those wanting robo-Ubers will continue to be disappointed for quite some time. (And I'm not sure how much it will matter because they will have actual Ubers.)