[ilstormcloud]

Depressing. I'll call it like it is. This is an idiotic response that lacks common sense. It's so common in the pro Egypt camp.

Most of the inventory is filled with short range equipment. The only jets able to reach Ethiopia are the Rafales and the SU-35 which make up a minority. They're not enough. More importantly, wars are not won by equipment (though they help immensely).

I don't get why such reductive opinions are so common when this issue is discussed.

[nullifidian]

Egypt and Sudan have signed a defense pact, and they are aligned on this issue. If and when push comes to shove I bet Egypt would use Sudan's air fields, and that would be more than enough range to bomb half the country(the half that has the river/lake) into oblivion with their 200+ F-16s. Also I don't sympathize with any side -- just made an observation that Ethiopia is very weak comparatively, and considering water is an existential issue for Egypt, may be they should be more realistic in their water related actions.

The only variable here that could stop Egypt and Sudan from taking "drastic measures" is the international response.

>wars are not won by equipment

Are you implying that Egyptians lack something in the morale or skill department compared to Ethopia?

>reductive opinions

Well, wars happen, and for lesser reasons.

>idiotic response that lacks common sense

Please be more civil.

[ilstormcloud]

I'm copy pasting a comment I made earlier.

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I have talked with a few Egyptians on the subject. Unfortunately most think a military solution would be simple and straightforward. "Egypt has hundreds of fighter jets. Ethiopia has 20, We can turn the dam into dust". They probably can. But then what? History is not over yet.

Egypt thinks of Ethiopia as enemy state. A lot of Ethiopians believe Egypt supports every rebel group in Ethiopia. But Ethiopians still don't view Egypt as an enemy, more like a thorn on the side. For thousands of years the Nile has been flowing toward Egypt without much objection. Bombing the dam will change that. It is the equivalent to creating a monster at your water source. Ethiopia will not try to block the water or anything like that. But it can and probably will start small irrigation projects everywhere. And it will stop consulting with Egypt. In the end, this will be much more devastating to Egypt than a hydro-electric dam which isn't even used for irrigation.

What baffles me about the Egyptian stance is, climate change is coming. Projections for fresh water in Africa in the coming decades don't look rosy. Mitigation for this is, fresh water sources should be developed and protected from environmental degradation. And you need the cooperation of upstream countries to do that. Being source of 85% of the Nile, Ethiopia's support is needed to do that.

Even if Ethiopia stops constructing the dam right now, in 50 years, at a time Egypt is sporting 200 million souls, there is potential that water levels on the Nile are probably going to decrease purely from climate change.

The talk of war is stupid. Playing zero sum game of "Only Egypt" is a bad idea.

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I called your opinion reductive because, it does not consider potential consequences and is oblivious to the various factors behind Sudanese change of position. I called your opinion idiotic because it contained this statement "Egypt can just occupy them, install a puppet regime and then move on. They definitely have that capability" which is an idiotic statement and because it will create more problems than it solves. I am sorry it sounds rude but some things need to be made clear.

Fyi, Egypt invaded Ethiopia twice already and were repulsed.

[nullifidian]

>copy pasting a comment I made earlier.

And it's mostly unrelated to what I said.

>The talk of war is stupid. Playing zero sum game of "Only Egypt" is a bad idea.

Well you have a strong pro-peace opinion, doesn't mean that people who don't have strong opinions either way and are just observing should be silenced.

>it does not consider potential consequences

I shouldn't express opinions on the possible Egyptian actions and their capabilities because Egyptian actions would cause consequences? Are you ok?

>opinion idiotic because it will create more problems than it solves.

A harmful opinion on HN? I promise you Al-Sisi or his entourage don't read HN. And yet you didn't provide any arguments on why Egypt wouldn't or couldn't do it, only that it shouldn't.