[hntrader]

This is an example of an analogy that is superficially fitting but doesn't actually map to the reality of what's being discussed.

The reason why our subjective probability of a building collapse goes up with the passage of time is because we know already that structural engineers are reliable. The passage of time tells us more about the structural integrity of the building than about the reliability of the engineering advice.

Macro-economists and geopolitical pundits on the other hand have little credibility when it comes to forecasting. The passage of time should only increase scepticism, especially when the reasons for the forecasted collapse keep changing.

If a psychic keeps giving you either incorrect predictions or predictions that remain unrealized, does your belief in them go up or down?