[ilstormcloud]

I have talked with a few Egyptians on the subject. Unfortunately most think a military solution would be simple and straightforward. "Egypt has hundreds of fighter jets. Ethiopia has 20, We can turn the dam into dust".

They probably can. But then what? History is not over yet.

Egypt thinks of Ethiopia as enemy state. A lot of Ethiopians believe Egypt supports every rebel group in Ethiopia. But Ethiopians still don't view Egypt as an enemy, more like a thorn on the side. For thousands of years the Nile has been flowing toward Egypt without much objection. Bombing the dam will change that. It is the equivalent to creating a monster at your water source. Ethiopia will not try to block the water or anything like that. But it can and probably will start small irrigation projects everywhere. And it will stop consulting with Egypt. In the end, this will be much more devastating to Egypt than a hydro-electric dam which isn't even used for irrigation.

What baffles me about the Egyptian stance is, climate change is coming. Projections for fresh water in Africa in the coming decades don't look rosy. Mitigation for this is, fresh water sources should be developed and protected from environmental degradation. And you need the cooperation of upstream countries to do that. Being source of 85% of the Nile, Ethiopia's support is needed to do that.

Even if Ethiopia stops constructing the dam right now, in 50 years, at a time Egypt is sporting 200 million souls, there is potential that water levels on the Nile are probably going to decrease purely from climate change.

The talk of war is stupid. Playing zero sum game of "Only Egypt" is a bad idea.

[masoeg]

| I have talked with a few Egyptians on the subject. Unfortunately most think a military solution would be simple and straightforward

Egyptian here .. i dont think most of Egyptian believe in the military solution and even our government Led by a military Experienced person doesn't believe in that

we have been in negotiations for multiple years and eventually will involve European Union or the US to make sure agreement is fair to both parties

[ilstormcloud]

Glad to hear that. But I am pessimistic about reaching a deal both sides would consider fair. Right now the basin water is divided by Egypt(85%) and Sudan(15%) with Ethiopia and the other 8 or 9 Nile basin countries allocated 0. Egyptian negotiation tactic over the past decade has been aimed at forcing Ethiopia to ratify this water share. The recent comments by your leader about war if "Egypt's water" is reduced is indicative of that.

For the Ethiopian side(and the rest of the Nile basin countries), this is outrageously unfair. Most people here recognize the water is a lifeline for Egypt and are against reducing Egypt's share by a consequential amount. But Egyptian intent of holding onto the 85/

[herodoturtle]

Insightful comment, thanks for sharing.

For those that are interested, here is some more context on official cooperation between countries that surround (and are dependent on) the Nile:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nile_Basin_Initiative

[ilstormcloud]

Thanks for bringing up the Nile Basin Initiative. Unfortunately, and to the surprise of no one, Egypt has been doing its best to kill it.