This is correct, but imo it is far more likely for the US (the largest military power in the world) to start something. No need to be hyper nationalistic about this.
It’s not obvious that the US will be the largest military power for long.
And china has been flying incursions into Taiwanese airspace with increasing regularity.
Plus, China has broken its treaty obligations in Hong Kong, and explicitly expresses the view that Taiwan is part of China, and it has no strategic semiconductor fabrication capability of its own.
Given all this, I’m not sure why you’d imagine the US would ‘start something’ purely because of the dollar amount it has spent on the military.
It depends on how you regard Taiwan. If you think of it like China's Texas, it's a domestic issue. If you think of it as a nation under threat, it's an international issue.
"Even as more than 1,000 people die from COVID-19 every single day in the United States, and the disease surges around the world, the US is preparing for a conflict that risks incalculable human suffering. Joining this offensive is the United Kingdom, with the highest COVID-19 death rate of the major European countries, which announced Tuesday a massive expansion of its nuclear weapons program, calling China a “major threat.”
It is not COVID-19, but China that the US has planted firmly in its sights. As Blinken made clear, “Several countries present us with serious challenges, including Russia, Iran, North Korea… but the challenge posed by China is different. China is the only country with the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power” to “challenge” the United States.
On March 10, Adm. Philip Davidson, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, told a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing he believes that China is likely to invade Taiwan within the next six years. “I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years,” Davidson said.
Given that the United States has, in the words of Defense Secretary Austin, “commitments to support Taiwan’s ability to defend itself,” to predict that China will invade Taiwan within the next six years is to predict a major Sino-American war within that same time period."
Your quote precisely supports what I explained - i.e. there is some likelyhood that China will try to seize control of Taiwan.
What it doesn’t say, is anything about the US starting something.
It’s totally absurd to consider Taiwan to be like a US state such as Texas.
For that to be a valid comparison, Texas would need to have a treaty with China where China had agreed intervene militarily to protect Texas from US federal government control.
Well, in the US civil war, the South did succeed and did attempt to make treaties with other nations. They weren't very successful it seems, but that's not because they didn't try. In the American Revolution, a critical factor in victory was our alliances with France and Germany.
If Taiwan is properly regarded as a domestic issue, US intervention is improper and is "starting something" that would otherwise be contained locally... much like WWI's system of alliances.
Great analogy, but not quite. It's more like the South seceded, then over the years became much more powerful, then in 1940 claimed that the North belonged to the South.
And china has been flying incursions into Taiwanese airspace with increasing regularity.
Plus, China has broken its treaty obligations in Hong Kong, and explicitly expresses the view that Taiwan is part of China, and it has no strategic semiconductor fabrication capability of its own.
Given all this, I’m not sure why you’d imagine the US would ‘start something’ purely because of the dollar amount it has spent on the military.