Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by kragen 1907 days ago
Originally posted at <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26238410>. Slightly edited.

If you live in a country with a highly functional banking system and no kleptocracy, Bitcoin is probably a bit puzzling unless you have family in Cuba. But it’s not puzzling at all for those of us who live somewhere in the middle of the broad spectrum between Switzerland and Somalia, because most places have a little kleptocracy. Argentina is a stable democracy, far from being “a failed state,”† but if you want to send US$500 abroad via non-Bitcoin means it’s basically impossible, and the only broadly available savings vehicle is real estate (“ahorrar en ladrillos”). This of course grossly inflates real-estate prices, with a substantial part of the capital city occupied by empty apartments someone bought “as an investment”. Historically, Argentines have saved by buying dollars, but that’s limited to US$200 a month now, and then only if you have a non-under-the-table job (about a third of total employment is under the table):

https://www.ambito.com/finanzas/dolares/cronologia-del-cepo-...

You can see that in September 02019 when this measure was imposed the price of a dollar was AR$63.50; now it’s AR$139. So whatever savings you had in pesos in 02019 have lost 57% of their value to peso devaluation.

In 02001 a lot of Argentines had saved dollars in their dollar-denominated bank accounts. This did not preserve their savings through the financial crisis that year; the cash-strapped government limited withdrawals to a trickle, then converted dollar deposits to pesos at a one-to-one rate, then released the exchange-rate peg, at which point peso went overnight from being worth US$1 to being worth US$0.25 before settling at about US$0.31 for the next few years. The US did something similar in 01933.

Some might suggest using “alternatives to banks like credit unions where customers—as owners—hold more power,” but Credicoop depositors suffered the same two-thirds confiscation of savings as depositors in for-profit banks. And they pay the same 3% tax on bank transactions including checks. That’s more than a fast Bitcoin transaction fee of US$15 for transactions over US$500 (though see below for data on current transaction fees).

This month there's a new development: every eligible person or company in Argentina (about 12% of the population, and about 20% of the bank-account-having population) gets locked out of their bank accounts until they comply with the government's new "economic census" program. At 5 days from the deadline there were still 700'000 depositors who hadn't complied:

https://www.cronista.com/economia-politica/que-es-el-censo-n... https://archive.fo/Os91S

But we’re not a failed state. There are no gangs of bandits roving the streets in Argentine cities (though there are some pretty bad slums where you’ll get robbed if you wander in without knowing anybody). Courts, free public hospitals, and roads continue to function, though there are more potholes than a year ago. Argentine infant mortality is 10 per 1000 live births, down from almost 20 in the late 01990s and the same as the late 01980s in the US; life expectancy at birth is 77 years, worse than Switzerland’s 84, but the same as China and Hungary, and better than Saudi or Mexico. (Somalia is 54.)

Most of the world is worse off than Argentina, although not necessarily in such a statistically transparent fashion. About one fourth of the people in the world are unbanked, 51% here in Argentina; even advanced countries like Russia, Hungary, and Uruguay have roughly a quarter of the population unbanked:

https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/worlds-most-...

And if your family lives in a country like Iran or Venezuela subject to US sanctions, and you live in the US? Good luck sending them an ACH, instant or otherwise!‡ It’s well known that Bitcoin is very popular in Venezuela, which kind of is a failed state, so one of the Venezuelan governments is trying to tax Bitcoin remittances at 15%.

https://archive.fo/ZRXzS

Bitcoin handles a few billion dollars per year in such remittances. This might seem like a trivial amount of money to someone in a rich country, but in poor countries, it’s enough to keep several million people alive.

Even in the US, it’s common for the police to confiscate large amounts of paper currency just because they can (“civil forfeiture”); US bank accounts are probably fine for US$100K but probably somewhat risky for US$10M if the bank thinks you don’t seem like the kind of person who ought to have it. US$10M in US$100 bills fits in a box you can wheel around on a dolly, but Bitcoin is a lot more practical. (And of course US$10M in dollar bills loses about US$200k per year to inflation.)

Transaction fees are high enough that you wouldn’t want to use Bitcoin to pay for a can of Red Bull or even a restaurant dinner. But it’s extremely practical as an alternative to Western Union or US$100 bills or gold, even with the current very high transaction fees. At the moment, the break-even point where the Bitcoin transaction fee is less than the 3.4% spread you’d pay to a jeweler or black-market money changer is around US$3000, because the median Bitcoin transaction fee in the last block was 1.7 millibitcoins, which is US$100:

https://btc.com/0000000000000000000ae1cdc00169e5fb6931d10584...

A month ago it was 0.31 millibitcoins:

https://btc.com/00000000000000000000476ab57eea9be8ada36e2680...

But there were transactions that made it into the last block with a transaction fee of only 0.082 millibitcoins, or US$5:

https://btc.com/81032a76e7ced9678996446ea05c91329d028af2fbfe...

So, Bitcoin doesn’t have to be a cypherpunk utopia to be a big improvement on the status quo ante. For those of you living in stable countries where your worries are things like “instant and extremely low-fee ACHs” and “decentralized utopia”, this may be very confusing, but try to remember that most of the world lives in places with much more pressing concerns, concerns that Bitcoin helps a lot with. And you may live there too, soon—the loyal subjects of Kaiser Wilhelm in 01913 certainly didn’t expect that in 15 years they’d be in the middle of a hyperinflation episode that remains legendary a century later.

____

† We’ve remained democratic since 01983, electing presidents from three different political parties (UCR, PJ, and PRO), and there’s no serious insurgency. It’s the economy and government policy that are ruinously unstable, to a point that seems satirical to anyone accustomed to the US, but is lamentably common worldwide. Rich people sometimes say they don't know of legitimate uses of Bitcoin outside of “failed states”.

‡ Family remittances are specifically exempted from the US sanctions on Iran, but good luck finding a US bank that’s willing and able to take that risk: https://www.wiggin.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/26580_advi...

3 comments

"Argentina is a stable democracy, far from being “a failed state,”† but if you want to send US$500 abroad via non-Bitcoin means it’s basically impossible...."

So about that: https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2018/06/134729-transferwise...

I believe in fact one of the core aspects of this critique is that cryptocurrency is often presented as the only solution to problems that are either already solved or that have obvious conventional alternatives.

Probably it's true that "cryptocurrency is often presented as the only solution to problems that are either already solved or that have obvious conventional alternatives," but I don't think my comment or the sentence you cited from it is an example of that.

That article says that TransferWise was going to offer service in Argentina. Looking at TransferWise's web site (now wise.com) they currently support converting money to Argentine pesos but not from Argentine pesos. So maybe if you're in Argentina and you have US dollars in your TransferWise account you can send them to someone else abroad.

But how do you get the dollars into the account in the first place? TransferWise doesn't seem to have a storefront in Argentina where you can walk in and deposit dollar bills. Their nearest office is in Brazil. Apparently to pay them you have to use the banking system.

But, as I've explained above, the Argentine banking system prohibits most people from buying any dollars at all, and the people who are allowed to buy dollars are limited to US$200 per month. It's easy enough to buy dollars on the black market, but there's no way to put those dollars into a bank account, and thus no way to send them to TransferWise.

So maybe that's why I know people who have successfully sent money out of Argentina with Bitcoin, and I think I know someone who has sent money into Argentina with TransferWise, but I've never heard of anybody successfully sending US$500 or more out of Argentina with TransferWise.

If it turns out that TransferWise actually does work for this at some point in the future, though, it would downgrade "sending US$500 abroad via non-Bitcoin means" from "basically impossible" to "a hundred times slower, expensive, and unavailable to the 51% of the country without a bank account". Cryptocurrency would go from being the only solution to just being the best solution.

> have lost 57% of their value

Correction: 54%, if we're counting from the September number I gave. The average inflation rate since 02001 has been about 19% per year, although the government statistics are faked to hide this.

So Argentina has problems that crypto-"currencies" serve as a workaround for? But do they help actually solve them? If not, then they are harmful as workarounds reduce the incentive to actually fix problems.
Well, Argentina doesn't really care about these "problems"; it's a large expanse of dirt and rocks, and what people do on top of that dirt and those rocks only affects it minimally. They are born, live, suffer, and die, but Argentina endures.

Some of the people do have these problems, but they aren't the ones who have power.

Rich people in Argentina already have most of their money in offshore bank accounts, so these "problems" aren't problems for them†; they may even benefit from them; for example, because they can buy bigger houses and pay their servants less, and things like the rigged currency system give a lot of tools to the ruling party to reward their supporters with. When the official exchange rate is 30% below the real rate, for example, an import license is virtually a license to print money.

So, I think that providing workarounds to the people who need them, cryptocurrencies probably not only ameliorate the most immediate and pressing concerns of poor parts of the population like Venezuelan immigrants, but probably also adjust the power balance in a more liberal and democratic direction. This will improve the chance of those concerns being ameliorated by public policy over the next decades as well. But it's hard to tell what will really happen. The potential disaster scenario is that, by making most taxation impossible, cryptocurrencies destroy the modern welfare state without providing anything to replace it. So the public hospitals close, the enormous police force starts to support itself by extracting tribute, and the infrastructure decays. Pretty similar to what's happened in the US over the last 50 years, in fact, only more so.

However, at this point I think the modern welfare state is already doing a good enough job of destroying itself without any significant help from cryptocurrencies—as evidence, I can point to Maduro, Macri, Bolsonaro, Trump, and Brexit, and metonymically to the social changes they betoken. So at this point I'm more worried about cushioning the collapse than preventing it.

______

† That isn't the way I see it, because I've seen how rich people in more egalitarian societies have better lives than rich people in Argentina, but it's by and large how powerful people in Argentina see it, and that's what counts when we're trying to predict the political effects of events.