[jplr8922]

Confusing performance metrics and strategical objective is not a data problem, it is a human problem. It happens to a lot of people outside the usual Blair-WhiteNationalist-IQ crowd. I do not think that advanced technical knowledge in ML or stats is required to avoid this mistake ; it is the ability to perform valid counterfactuals statements.

A good example of what I mean can be found on wikipedia :

His instinctive preference for offensive movement was typified by an answer Patton gave to war correspondents in a 1944 press conference. In response to a question on whether the Third Army's rapid offensive across France should be slowed to reduce the number of U.S. casualties, Patton replied, "Whenever you slow anything down, you waste human lives."[103]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_S._Patton

Here, US general Patton is not confounding a performance metric (number of casualities) with strategic goal (winning the war). His counterfactual statement could be that ''if we slow things down, you are simply delaying future battles and increase the total number of casualties in order to achieve victory''.

I'm not suprised at Blair decision. When we choose leaders, do we favor long term strategic thinkers, or opportunistic pretty faces?