[2-tpg]

We know that patient 0 was not at the market, and that people at the market got infected.

So, perfectly valid scenario:

1. Scientists do controversial Gain-of-function research by collecting viruses from miles away and importing them to Wuhan.

2. Lab leak happens

3. First linked clusters pop up a few miles away in a rather unsanitary market, with plenty of reservoirs and infection possibilities.

4. Virus is found in environmental samples, including animal cages and pets and frozen foods, in Hunan market and else.

The only thing indirectly invoking a major conspiracy here, is the possibility: lab leak happens.

Or you know, you can account for a scenario, where Chinese authorities covered up a major conspiracy (Don't be afraid! It's only reason over authority!). I thought we were already at the point where this is common sense knowledge. Or else we would know what exactly is going on in those Uyghur concentration camps, but all we can do is estimate the extend of this inhumane conspiracy.

[MilnerRoute]

What's frustrating about this is I feel like it doesn't matter how much evidence there is for the emerging consensus that it emerged from an animal at the market.

The counter-argument is still always, "Yes, yes, but what if instead of that maybe it somehow came from a badly-run lab instead?"

[2-tpg]

It is also frustrating to hear:

- Ah.. It came from the meat market (official positions) - Likely from live bats - Who are not sold at that meat market - Who are hybernating - Who come from a cave 900 miles away

Yes, yes, but what if instead it maybe came from a badly-run lab studying that exact bat just a few miles away?

- We strongly condemn any theory that may lead to the suggestion that it came from the lab. You are directly insulting the work of our Chinese colleagues, threatening our relations in Gain-of-Function research and funding, and furthering harmful conspiracy theories accusing the Chinese authorities of a cover-up. I, Peter Daszak, will do a thorough investigation into the origins, which all responsible scientists have already concluded is natural in origin.

[MilnerRoute]

There actually is a bunch of evidence supporting the theory that it emerged from an animal at the market. Here's a recent article from Bloomberg:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/contentious-hunt-for-co...

Scientists tracing the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic believe they’ve identified a possible transmission source: China’s thriving wildlife trade... The most plausible theory, say experts involved in the mission, concerns China’s wildlife trade for food, furs and traditional medicine, a business worth about 520 billion yuan ($80 billion) in 2016. Live animals susceptible to coronavirus infection were present at the Huanan food market in downtown Wuhan, the city where the first major Covid-19 outbreak was detected. It’s possible they acted as conduits for the virus, carrying it from bats -- likely the primary source, says a zoologist who was part of the joint research effort... "The main conclusion from this stage of the work -- and it’s not over yet of course -- is that the exact same pathway by which SARS emerged was alive and well for the emergence of Covid...."

Farmed and wild-caught civets, a small, nocturnal mammal consumed in China, were blamed for spreading the SARS virus in a market in the southern province of Guangdong in 2003. Scientists later found the infection originated in horseshoe bats, a natural reservoir of coronaviruses.

The two species likely collided in markets where live animals are caged in crowded conditions, potentially allowing the bat-borne virus to adapt and amplify before it spilled over to humans, initially among workers and those handling the animals. Scientists working on the origin hunt say a similar scenario may have played out with Covid-19. A study of the first 99 patients treated at an infectious diseases hospital in Wuhan found half were linked to the Huanan seafood market, which also reportedly sold live animals, some illegally captured in the wild and slaughtered in front of customers.