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by dirtyid
1906 days ago
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PRC/ROC dynamic is formally an unfinished civil war, it's diplomatically a domestic issue between two governments representing one China, where recognition is mutually exclusive. The current peace / détente is held together by a bunch of incongruous agreements, i.e. article 8 & 92 consensus between PRC/ROC, three communiqués between PRC/US, TW relations act between ROC/US to make the current arrangement somewhat workable. I don't think even "peaceful" legal options exist at UN anymore, article 18 can add new members with 2/3 vote, but resolution 2758 that changed UN recognition from ROC to PRC precludes Taiwanese politicians from joining as they are technically representatives of a Chinese province. There would need to be overhaul of UN, modern IR and Westphalian sovereignty system for TW to exist as a separate country from PRC which isn't likely to happen with PRC influence. Formal TW recognition (and derecognition of PRC) by outside parties still does not change civil war dynamic which can't be ended unilaterally by one party or outside parties. There's no way out but to fight and win for TW, and win sufficiently to be able to dictate terms to PRC and have PRC surrender agreed formally so as to enable the creation two separate sovereign states. Even then it doesn't change underlying PRC desire to regain Taiwan, whether that's resumption of civil war, via illegal war, or declaration of legal war. TW independence is a military problem, I think people are deluding themselves if they belief there's a political two country solution, especially by third parties. |
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