[Animats]

Yes. I notice that the two Maersk freighters behind the Ever Given are no longer there. It looks like all traffic has been cleared from the canal on both sides. Zoom out. The north end of the Gulf of Suez looks like a parking lot. So does the Med north of Port Said. So does Fayed, the lake in the middle of the canal.

Smit, the big Dutch salvage firm, has been called in and already has their first heavy equipment, a dredger, on site. "Days to weeks" is all they'll say. The good case is that they pump fuel and ballast water out of the ship, plus some dredging, and it floats free. The not so good case is they bring in a big crane and start unloading containers. The bad case is that the ship is partly sunk and will have to be patched and refloated. The really bad case is that the hull is so badly damaged that the ship has to be cut apart in place.

Meanwhile, shipping from China to Europe is now US$4000/TEU. Usually it's around US$1000. China's "Belt and Road" rail plan may pay off.

[jtbayly]

> China's "Belt and Road" rail plan may pay off.

That’s great conspiracy theory fodder right there. :)

Edit: perhaps it’s not so far fetched, if the boat drew a giant penis before getting stuck.

[stragies]

Or the super-extra-bad case: The ship breaks while attempting to pull it free. Pieces of ship + 20000 containers in the canal. How long would it be blocked for. Full-spectrum catastrophe!

[laurent92]

How far could it go? Could it go political about Egypt’s management of the crisis?

[jacquesm]

Removing ballast from a ship with such a heavy top load is super risky. That could turn 'days or weeks' into 'months or years'.