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by dcolkitt 1910 days ago
> Surely the best way to examine the true impact of COVID is to understand the raw death figures

Is it though? As an example motor vehicle fatalities went up sharply in 2020. Is this due to the pandemic?

If anything the pandemic should have decreased car accidents, because miles driven went down. It seems there’s possibly an orthogonal force at work. Possibly the rising market share of monster pickup trucks, which are particularly deadly to pedestrians.

My point is the pandemic was obviously the biggest change that happened in 2020, but it wasn’t the only change.

2 comments

>Is it though? As an example motor vehicle fatalities went up sharply in 2020. Is this due to the pandemic?

>If anything the pandemic should have decreased car accidents, because miles driven went down. It seems there’s possibly an orthogonal force at work. Possibly the rising market share of monster pickup trucks, which are particularly deadly to pedestrians.

>If anything the pandemic should have decreased car accidents, because miles driven went down. It seems there’s possibly an orthogonal force at work. Possibly the rising market share of monster pickup trucks, which are particularly deadly to pedestrians.

Nice theory but I think it's far more likely that the pandemic completely upended "regular traffic" everywhere causing millions of people to be driving/walking at days/times/places and in traffic conditions that they were not accustomed to and this was a fairly instant change so pretty much everyone was flying by the seat of their pants. Predictable traffic is safe traffic and the pandemic changed normal traffic patterns in pretty much the entire western world creating tons more opportunities for mismatched expectations of behavior between traffic participants.

According to data in the UK from May last year, more likely to be in a crash (although total trips were down, as you note). Link below notes crashes around a couple of football events went from 16 (in jan) to 70 (in mar). I don't think pedestrians enter into it.

So perhaps more risky driving occurs when fewer other cars are around? Maybe the risk-averse stay home, leaving only riskier people to go out? Clearly, the pandemic had an indirect effect here though.

https://www.vin.li/era/covid-uk-report/