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by throwaway13337 1910 days ago
According to this, the percentage-wise deviation from normal range the last year has been worst for 25-44 year olds. Absolute number of deaths is, of course, higher for the elderly. But the relative change is biggest in that age group.

That's a rather different narrative than I've heard. I wonder what could explain it? Secondary issues related to but not covid?
2 comments
ppf 1910 days ago
By "narrative", I assume you mean the idea that "Covid doesn't affect the young by very much".

Taken as a proportion of total Covid deaths, that is very true.

Given that practically no young people die in developed countries, it doesn't take much to make a big change to the excess mortality figure for that age group.

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usr1106 1910 days ago
My explanation has been that many of the elderly who died from covid did not have much live expectation left because they had suffered multiple diseases already. So in excess deaths they don't show that big, even though there were many cases. But the 25-44 olds would still have decades left, so every death makes a greater impact on excess deaths of their age group.

But my statistics math is on a very basic level...

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enkid 1910 days ago
That's not what excess deaths mean. Excess deaths is number of deaths above previous years average. It has nothing to do with age, other than tracking who has died at what age.
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usr1106 1910 days ago
So why would you not be able to categorize excess death into age groups?

Last period 100 70 - 90 years old died. This period 110. If they died only a fraction of the period earlier, they would have shown up in the same category anyway with some probability.

This period 5 20-40 years old died, this year 10 Normally they would have died decades later, so they would have not shown up in this category during the period.

(Of course with small numbers statisical relevance decreases. But I have understood in countries with many covid deaths in elderly care excess deaths for high age categories did not increase that much over a year.)

This would show a 10% increase in the older group, but a 50% increase in the younger group.

Of course

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rimliu 1910 days ago
True, but it will be interesting to see if there is reduction of the excess deaths next year. A. k. a. The harvesting theory.
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