[rcMgD2BwE72F]

What is your estimate, and how did you measure it?

I live in Paris where most of French demonstrations take place (including the yellow vest movement) but I can't pretend to have better estimates than all local and global media sources and public observers.

[dirtyid]

Historically, HK protestors grossly over exaggerate for optics, but MSM usually endorses organizer headcount uncritically. Reality consistently closer to police (under)estimates. Professionals at crowd control are better at estimating crowd sizes. Study from HKU of pre 2019 protests:

https://graphics.reuters.com/HONGKONG-EXTRADITION-PROTESTS/0...

Another analysis with machine learning, about 1/2 protestor estimates.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/07/03/world/asia/ho...

And another, estimates protesters had to occupy 18 miles of streets to pack 1M protestors, actual protests occupied 1 mile. Acknowledges not exact science, but leans towards conservative estimate of 250k... incidentally close to police estimates.

https://www.cjr.org/analysis/how-many-marched-protests-hong-...

IMO just average protestor and police reports for ball park figure.

[logotype]

The articles you are referring to doesn’t show the full picture. In all protests only a part of the crowd is visible on the streets, the majority of the day is spent trying to get up to the streets from the MTR.

[dirtyid]

HKU has 15 years of data points on HK protests. There is reliable pattern of protestor organizers significantly overestimating and police mildly underestimating. Overall HKU and Police estimates are much more aligned. These two parties are actual subject matter experts vs protest organizers, ergo based on historic data and expertise, organizer estimates should be presumed to be less reliable / credible. Doesn't mean 2019 protests weren't massive. They're just likely half as massive as what makes for good headlines.