[pointyfence]

Given Intel's operational track record for the last say 7 years, a manufacturing group that's been tightly coupled to its internal design group for eons focused on a very narrow product line, its past half-hearted and unsuccessful attempts at being a foundry, competing against its potential customers, years of organizational and operational mal and under investment, and a competitor like TSMC, it doesn't seem like this has a good probability of success.

Anything can happen, but basically, Gelsinger is selling a pivot that goes against Intel's intrinsic nature for a really long time. Which customers are going to sign up to be the test customers for Intel for anything of meaningful scale? I guess Intel could discount prices immensely like Samsung, but is that worth the risk to a major player?

If I had to pick a company to be a national US champion to revitalize the US semiconductor industry, is Intel really the right pick vs. say Texas Instruments?

[trynumber9]

Regarding Texas Instruments, what's the latest and most advanced fabrication facility they have? The latest information I could find suggest 45nm.

The options in the US don't really look so bleak to go back to 45nm. Intel, Samsung and TSMC have all announced plans for new fabrication facilities in the US. $20B for two plants in Arizona for Intel, $17 billion for new plant and upgrades to S2 in Austin for Samsung, and $12B for a new plant in Arizona for TSMC. I think this is the largest semiconductor investment in the US of all time. Of course it is all planned and plans may fall through.

[pointyfence]

I was thinking more along the lines of selecting a company that plays better with the rest of the industry and has a better operational history if you wanted to bring back more of a general semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem back to the US. Focus more on building out capabilities for the rest of the industries that don't need bleeding edge node development while Intel figures out its bleeding edge.

Intel strikes me as historically one of the more ethically challenged companies that heavily relied on monopolistic power. And then when it got into trouble and that monopoly's cracks were widening at a good pace, it started waving the flag after spending $20B+ on stock buybacks.

[trynumber9]

Intel has the need for leading edge logic processes and the money to try it. No other US company does. Micron is focused on memory and will not go into logic processes.

There are a few contract fabs in the US but none of them are anywhere near the volume Intel will have to offer as 14nm lines become available for other customers.

Anyway, I don't understand your proposal. Intel is doing what it can. Other US semiconductor companies are doing what they can. Unless you want the government to pressure Intel to sell some of their 14nm fabs to companies who have an interest in contract manufacturing I suspect this is just the way things will go.

[trhway]

>Focus more on building out capabilities for the rest of the industries that don't need bleeding edge node development

i think that would be a huge strategic error. Most of those "the rest of the industries" are in turn going to get access to and reap the benefits of the bleeding edge as soon as they can, so building out non-bleeding edge specifically for them is a losing game.

The announcement itself seems to be a kitchen sink. They are going to do everything in a new and cool way! Kind of obvious that Pat can't break the death grip of the manufacturing people - after all it is that vertical integration that has brought all those record revenues in the recent years. Of course it has also caused Intel to fall that far behind.

[missedthecue]

Interesting that both Intel and TSMC chose AZ. Isn't chip manufacturing very water intensive? Other states like say Michigan have more water than they know what to do with, between their giant aquifers, great lakes, and 1 meter of annual rainfall.

[wahern]

> Arizona has high interest because it has the five key factors for semiconductor fabs – available land, infrastructure (power, water, etc.), skilled talent, no natural disasters, and favorable tax incentives.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tiriasresearch/2021/03/23/arizo...

Not sure if the author is simply reciting received wisdom of dubious accuracy. Perhaps some of those things are far more important than others--e.g. pre-existing talent and tax incentives.

Or maybe our assumptions are wrong. Last month I made a similar point as yours regarding water and nuclear power plants in Nevada, to which someone replied noting the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station in Arizona, the largest power plant in the United States, which sources its water from sewage. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26176034 and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palo_Verde_Nuclear_Generating_... In addition to providing an example of water utilization, I imagine the cheap power produced by Palo Verde probably also figures into siting preferences.

[mech422]

I actually think the 'no natural disasters' thing is good for IT... Why put a DR site someplace an earthquake or tornado could take it out?

[UncleOxidant]

Micron seems more likely than TI, but Intel is still the best shot for the US semiconductor revitalization.

[hedora]

Why are they building fabs in Phoenix? They’re incredibly water intensive, and Phoenix is in the middle of the desert.

[rsj_hn]

Fun Fact: While Phoenix is indeed in a desert, it is a high desert (unlike the Mojave desert in Southern California), and there are canals that bring water from the Northern part of the Arizona, which has more mountains (in terms of square miles) than Switzerland. Also lots of great places to go skiing.

Arizona has so much water that historically it spent 2/3 of its water on growing water intensive crops like alfalfa and cotton. The nice thing about growing crops in the desert is year round sunlight allows you to get more harvests in. As rain damages cotton, the ideal place to grow it would be something like a desert with canals bringing in water from mountains nearby.

But semiconductor plants offer much better revenue per gallon of water than alfalfa or cotton, so it makes a lot of sense that Arizona is trying to migrate its water allocation to higher value-add industries, and of course the state would rather be known for semiconductors than for cotton.

[mech422]

Don't forget our biggest crop: Golf courses!

[fomine3]

Don't forget GloFo!

[burlesona]

How competitive is TI's fabrication tech though? I would imagine Intel is pretty far ahead of them, but I don't know much about the space.