[timr]

> This statement cannot be made from the link you posted. This is a rate. A frequency rate among sampled data. However it does not track the number of samples occurring.

It does. Click the link [1]. Figure 2 [2] shows the number of samples. They explain it clearly:

> The FilmArray RP test utilization rate (TUR) metric is defined as the non-normalized number of RP patient test results generated each week across the Trend sites (computed as a centered 3-week moving average).

"Non-normalized number of RP patient test results" => count of samples

> To calculate the pathogen detection rate (as displayed in Figure 2 [second data view] and on the Trend website), we compute the rate for each organism at each institution as a centered 3-week moving average

They calculate positive rates for each pathogen, using the the number of samples as the denominator.

> They are averaging rates of infection.

They are not. They are computing an unweighted average rate across sites. Look at figure 2. Read the text again.

This surveillance data is showing you that the rate of samples positive for rhinovirus in their network is ~unchanged. The rate of influenza has disproportionately declined. There is nothing wrong with the data.

> Keep the enthusiasm, but just understand the math/stats a bit more.

Thanks for the advice.

[1] https://publichealth.jmir.org/2018/3/e59/

[2] https://publichealth.jmir.org/2018/3/e59/#figure2

[manwe150]

Your statements seem mostly correct to me, but may be read in a misleading manner to imply the prevalence of colds is similar this year to past years. That data also does exist somewhere (since it was used to compute the plot in your first link), it just isn’t shown in that particular plot. From comparison to the paper, we seem to only have plot 1 for 2020, and not plot 2. Plot 1 (rates) showed the relative effects, but we need a link for plot 2 (counts) for 2020 before we can make statements about the absolute effects.

Hope that helps clear up the misunderstanding. And if you have a link to the counts data also, do share!