[dcolkitt]

This is a pretty interesting hypothesis. Maybe there’s nothing really special about SARS type coronaviruses besides their novelty.

Is it possible that all coronaviruses, including the ones that cause a common cold, have a similar morbidity profile to COVID? Very minor infection in the young or those with previous exposure, extremely deadly in the old and naive. Except we all catch a bunch of colds in childhood, so nobody has to worry about a cold wiping out nursing homes.

[cdrini]

No it's not possible. The thing that makes Sars-Cov-2 unique is its binding site in the human body. Sars-Cov-2 binds to the ACE2 receptor, which is found in just about every organ in your body. Unlike many other viruses which target receptors more localized to e.g. your throat/airway, Sars-Cov-2 can infect cells in your nasal cavity, stomach, lungs, heart, olfactory neurons, you name it. And every cell it infects will be destroyed; either by bursting to release the viral replicas, or by an immune system response.

[Wintamute]

I'm not sure that damage to various organs around the body beyond respiratory system is that a unique of a property - see myocarditis and the like related to influenza infection, which is a significant cause of mortality.

[franl]

I'm not sure I've seen the difference described so clearly and succinctly! How would you describe the seasonal flu in this same regard to receptors?

[Omnitaus]

Seasonal flu is multiple different strains that can exchange genetic material, as contrasted with COVID that doesn't have different strains but small mutations

[guscost]

I have been saying this for many years, and have been condescended to a lot (by friends, even) for saying it.

We clearly don’t have the faintest understanding of the long-term dynamics of something like SARS, when all the conventional model parameters go to such extremes. And when the disease is evolving. And when people retreat inside and stop getting sun. And so on.

[valarauko]

>I have been saying this for many years, and have been condescended to a lot (by friends, even) for saying it.

What exactly have you been saying?

[_nalply]

He maintains that he has been laughed off for his wild conspiracy theories.

[valarauko]

I'm unclear what the specific claim that he's been making for years exactly is - that coronaviruses have a morbidity profile similar to COVID, from the GP? Or that we can't believe long term dynamics for disease models because the parameters go to extremes?

[guscost]

Paraphrasing: “The academics who claim that we narrowly avoided a SARS/etc holocaust, have a fatal conflict of interest, and are completely full of shit.”

[valarauko]

I'm confused - this sounds like an entirely different claim than your original comment. Could you elaborate?

[nradov]

Yes that's possible, at least for some other coronavirus. HCoV-OC43 is an endemic betacoronavirus very similar to SARS-CoV-2. It typically causes common cold symptoms in healthy people but is extremely dangerous to the elderly.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2095096/