[esja]

I'd also assign a small but non-zero probability to the US not wanting to point the finger because they prefer the scenario where the general population comes to believe that the lab accident was responsible, but no hard evidence is ever produced.

Why? Because it seems like US institutions and people (right up to Fauci) were involved in this research and may not want the domestic blowback.

Conveniently the CCP don't want a paper trail either.

I'd be pretty sure the various scenarios have already been gamed out in both countries.

Edit: Not sure why this is being downvoted, but just in case it’s a reflex because I mentioned Fauci: yes, he was head of NIAID, and yes, the NIH did fund this type of research at the WIV. The grants are public information.

[boringg]

Please supply links on the research grants.

[esja]

Sure.

Part 1, from 2014-2019, for 3.7M:

https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8674931

Part 2, from 2019 until it was cancelled in April 2020:

https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9819304

Both led by Peter Daszak who is now also the lead WHO investigator. The same person who decided the WHO didn’t need to see the deleted virus databases, and the same person who co-ordinated the Lancet statement which minimised the lab leak theory early on (and let to it being considered a conspiracy theory).

Here he is on This Week In Virology, describing this sort of work. It’s worth watching the whole thing, but gets most interesting from minute 27 onward:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IdYDL_RK--w

For example he confirms it’s easy to modify these viruses in the lab, and mentions collaborating with Ralph Baric at UNC. Baric invented Remdesivir (with Gilead) - the “cure” that turned out not to work very well. His lab was doing gain of function experiments before the ban. Shi Zhengli (“bat woman” from Wuhan) worked very closely with Baric and Daszak.

[boringg]

Seems like there continues to be more to this story. Still doesn't change my opinion that that is likely the source of the outbreak. I will adjust my priors as more information becomes available. It does complicate things quite a bit - would be great to know how much funding the US portion is vs the Chinese.

[esja]

I agree the Wuhan lab leak remains the most likely explanation. I think these additional details support that theory, as they verify that this activity was indeed taking place in Wuhan, while also helping explain the unusual behaviour of all the people who should be investigating but seem instead to be constantly deflecting.

[boringg]

Agree seems like we have the incentives lined up and the least plausible scenario without new information. Likely will never get to the bottom of this.

[esja]

Another overview here (there are plenty of these):

https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan...