[pharke]

The wikipedia page you link to clearly shows that enteric fermentation accounts for 16% vs Coal and Oil at 19%. There is also another 36% anthropogenically produced methane in that chart so I think that easily accounts for the 3x increase without pinning it on cows. Interestingly rice cultivation contributes a whopping 12%.

[titzer]

It's like we got shot by a firing squad of 6 people and we're arguing about which one of them had the blank.

[pharke]

Not really, we're trying to do some important math to figure out how to balance a carbon budget. We need to know what options are on the table and how much each of them contribute. It's the same as balancing a household budget, you don't just flail wildly about slashing costs and enduring privation. You reduce expenditures in areas where they are unnecessary and try to cause the least disruption to your life.

[titzer]

I get what you are trying to say, but we don't have a carbon budget, nor a methane budget. Maybe attitudes need to shift gradually to make other people feel more comfortable, but the fact is that we need to make radical changes to all areas of human existence in order to deal properly with the magnitude of the crisis. It seems like...smart...to be rational, and weigh costs and impact and supposedly choose the smartest strategy and all, but it's mostly just a vehicle for one sector to shift the blame on another and try to make it someone else's problem. I know you specifically aren't doing that, but the end result is that nothing will ever get done, as we will be in analysis paralysis even as it all comes unraveled.

[Retric]

Natural CO2 sinks that absorb carbon from volcanos exist. As such we can have some net human CO2 production without making things worse than they are today.

An 80% reduction in CO2 isn’t quite enough, but it would avert most issues for a long time. More importantly doing something is much more productive than saying we need to change everything on day one which just promotes paralysis.

The obvious step one is to get cars and electricity to ~zero. That’s achievable in 20 years especially when you consider gas stations closing are going to make ICE engines unappealing.

[whitexn--g28h]

Gas stations are closing because ICE engines are getting more efficient and now have a lot more range. I think this is going to make them more appealing in the short term.

[pbhjpbhj]

FWIW, IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) reports gather statistics and best practice across science and engineering and produce reports at multiple levels to detail pertinent statistics on this area.

This seems to be a good review, https://www.c2es.org/content/ipcc-fifth-assessment-report/.

The sixth report is due soon. Everyone should read the policymakers summary IMO.