[meddlepal]

A naval blockade of a nuclear power probably leads to a nuclear war.

Taking Taiwan is a giant pain in the ass for China which is why it is unlikely to happen in any foreseeable future (e.g. 30-50 years). Honestly, it seems like China despite its words sometimes is perfectly content with the current status quo so long as Taiwan doesn't try to foment political unrest on the mainland.

[skissane]

> A naval blockade of a nuclear power probably leads to a nuclear war.

Suppose PRC tried to blockade Taiwan, US might respond by trying to blockade PRC. In that scenario, what does PRC do? Nuke US? Try to work around the US blockade? Come to negotiating table?

I don't think "Nuke US" would be at the top of list of strategies for PRC. Nuke US, US nukes you back, game over. Not a winning strategy.

[baybal2]

PRC is probably the one, and only state which may survive a full scale nuclear exchange.

Americans not taking it seriously is reflecting on the overall direction, and quality of their military decision making.

[tomatotomato37]

The PRC could survive a nuclear exchange with anyone except the USA or Russia, as both went completely overboard during the cold war arms race. Both superpowers have been constantly disarming since the 90s and there's still an order of magnitude difference in number of nukes between them and the rest of the world.

[baybal2]

It can.

And it would've been true even with cold war peak weapon stockpiles.

To anybody claiming the opposite, am asking them just why wouldn't it be any different how in Mao's most famous saying.

Even with an extreme prospect of loosing half of population, you will still have a very angry country that too went completely overboard on preparing for NBC war, and which will still have world's biggest heavy industry even after massive losses.

Even to this day, NBC shelters are built in every Chinese city. Xi, and top military officials spends most of their day in bunkers. The industry is holding bi-monthly, or tri-monthly mobilisation, and war production drills. Most state employees get military training, and basic military training is still a part of high school, and college in China. Humongous food, and materials caches across the country prepared explicitly with war in mind.

And of course, the famed Kim style VIP nuke shelters in the mountains to hide a big portion of the party elite are very real too, as are the draconian plans which CPC has for its population in case of war, with being shot on sight for opposing conscription probably being the least cruel.

Seeing well educated, if not elite, people in the West dismissing that so easily makes me nervous at least.

[lazide]

The current plan seems to be a takeover from within, using Chinese sponsored agents and social movements.

It probably won’t let them march troops on the island for a long time - if ever - but I bet they’re getting plenty of intelligence and trade secrets from it.

[csomar]

That's what people said about Hong Kong but things shifted quite fast.