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by andy_ppp 1915 days ago
“That virus strain will not be as transmissible or virulent as what we are dealing with now, because it has had to make those costly "decisions".”

I’m not convinced you can absolutely guarantee these changes will make the virus less dangerous, we could be unlucky and it could become worse.
2 comments
lamontcg 1915 days ago
Right now that is what is happening, but as the title shows those variants don't achieve immune escape.

The sum total of mutations necessary to achieve immune escape and overcome herd immunity is a lot more likely to come at a cost to overall fitness.

Also I can't guarantee that West Ham United won't win the Premier League, but the safe money is all on Man City.

Paper on the possibility of mild disease endemicity:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741

AP coverage of that paper:

https://apnews.com/article/common-cold-india-coronavirus-pan...

link
bredren 1915 days ago
I'm not convinced we can get an effective global, rolling vaccination program in place to set up effective population immunity.

From what I can tell, almost all public discussion of the future of Covid is similar to a "happy path."

link