[konjin]

There's a list of quotes just as wrong for spacex.

The issue isn't the predictions. It's the time frames he makes the predictions about. We will have everything he's said one day, but in the mean time we need to call him out for what he's done: lying, and why he's done it: to get money.

[simonh]

I actually don’t think he’s lying, I think he believes his own hype. That’s why he’s so incredibly motivated.

[slfnflctd]

My take as well. I've known so many people like this. I've been a person like this. Someone close to me is working for a small startup run by a guy like this.

It's an unfortunate flipside to their willingness to work so hard-- they almost need to believe in the impossible to keep up the pace. Ideally there is someone between them and the public face of the company, but all too often they can't help spouting off stuff they should be keeping under wraps in front of TV cameras or in tweets.

[rsj_hn]

Yes, he's a believer. This belief in discounting the reasoning gap between humans and software is why Musk is both up at night worrying about evil AI taking over the world (it may already be too late!) and also genuinely believes that autonomous driving is a "solved problem" that just needs some of the rough edges removed (just a couple of years away!).

It's like there is this enormous gulf that most others can see, but to Elon it's invisible.

So don't let anyone tell you that philosophy and theology don't matter. We are witnesses a multi-billion dollar bet being made on the basis of some extreme views about the nature of man, and because this appears to be a core belief of Elon, I doubt he will ever update his priors to make more effective investment decisions based on feedback from real-world tests. He will always view this as a project that is almost-ready with just a few technical glitches to overcome.

[lomereiter]

If someone in a position of power looks honest, it's either because they have such a huge competitive edge that they truly don't care, or because they are incredible bullshit artists. In the case of Musk it's a mix of both, and so far he manages to turn some hype into reality. He is the epitome of plausible deniability.

[simonh]

Those are really the only two possibilities ever? They're just people.

[konjin]

If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you.

The reason why he's so motivated is because his compensation package is so ridiculous.

[solveit]

I think it's fair to say that an extra marginal tens of millions of dollars or so will not affect Musk's life in the slightest. I find it hard to believe that Musk is motivated by money at this point.

[konjin]

I was talking about the 50 billion or so from Tesla: https://observer.com/2019/09/tesla-elon-musk-compensation-pa...

If he is so uninterested by money he can of course show that by giving it to charity.

[simonh]

He was always like that, which is why he did two internships in one summer and dropped out of Stanford to founded Zip2. He slept in the office. They had one computer, so it ran the service during the day and he used it as a dev machine through the night. Some people, that's just the way they are.

[konjin]

Again, if you believe that I have a bridge to sell you.

18 hour days are the "walking barefoot in the snow for three days" of our time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Road_to_Canossa

Amazing how neither sleep deprivation psychosis nor frost bite are a thing if you're rich enough and talking about how virtuous you are.