[thebradbain]

Sure, but you're anticipating CA housing prices keep rising or the very least don't crater and that Texas real estate prices don't continue skyrocketing (in the past 5 years, the average 3bd/2ba home in Dallas has doubled from 200k to 400k. As all major cities in Texas are among the top fastest growing in the US each year, it looks like there's a good 5-10 years of 10%+ property value growth, at minimum). Like almost all arbitrage opportunities, the spread will eventually be narrowed as more and more people take advantage of it.

Furthermore, your 1.24m figure is over-inflated, as CA has high state/local sales/income taxes. And don't forget San Franciso transfer taxes on real estate (around $50k-100k due at close)! Texas has no state or local income taxes, aside from property taxes.

Not to mention that if you have kids, you don't really have the luxury of waiting that long. You can put them into a better school district for cheaper, or you can even send your kid to top-tier well-known private schools for $25k/year rather than $60k/year. Even in-state college tuition at UT, a nationally renowned public university on par with UCLA and UC Berkeley, is only $5k/year, versus near $20k in CA.

I live in Los Angeles now, but I grew up in Dallas. Obviously I'm choosing to stay in California for a reason, but I'm not ignorant as to why someone would move from CA to TX.