[jpdaigle]

A counter-argument I've read to the dark forest theory is that:

* spectroscopic analysis can show that our atmosphere is oxygen-rich, and this can be detected from a range of many light-years away * oxygen-rich atmospheres probably indicate life * we've had an oxygen-rich atmosphere for hundreds of millions of years

So, yes, radio wave emissions have only been going on for 100 years, but we've looked like a life-bearing planet for 100s of millions of years and nobody's taken a successful extinction shot at us that we know of.

[Chris2048]

> oxygen-rich atmospheres probably indicate life

Is it though? We only have one example of "life" and that is an oxygen based form. Supposing all forms of life are similar is something I consider unproven.

It might be more accurate to say an "unusual" planetary chemistry is indicative of an unusual process, which might include life. But then the question is: How many planets are there with unusual chemistry? I think we are far from observing this - the many planets we now suppose to exist are only just being discovered, starting with the largest, the hottest, and the nearest.

[lucozade]

> nobody's taken a successful extinction shot at us that we know of.

Are you sure? Someone's been chucking bloody big rocks at us for millions of years, on and off. Some of which appear to have caused some pretty spectacular extinctions.

Maybe the issue is that we think the aliens fly around in saucers when, in fact, they are just playing a gigantic game of pinball.

[patentatt]

The precision it would take to launch an unguided rock from one solar system to another and hit a particular target makes that seem unlikely. Just imagine how many different gravitational forces you’d have to account for over such a long period of time! Depending on how fast you can throw it, you probably have to account for gravitational masses that don’t yet exist or would change significantly before your rock got close. It would be truly impressive. But any civilization worth bombarding like that would also probably be able to protect against that threat model, right? It seems that detection and mitigation are at least theoretically within our grasp already (I’m going to cite the movie Armageddon here), and we pose absolutely zero threat to a civilization in a distant solar system.