[_7fvc]

The problem with using Bitcoin for payments is volatility. Bitcoin's price is volatile. Bitcoin supporters say volatility will go down "at some point". The logic is pretty silly. Bitcoin is money for the people. But when the super rich people adopt it, volatility will go down. They have more money. The Bitcoin money "tank" will be bigger. Its volatile flow will go down.

Bitcoin is digital gold, God's money. When it comes to volatility, it's up to humans to "fix" it. The fix means we all have to "buy" into it, that is, blindly believe the problem will be fixed somehow. Stop selling, keep holding. Maybe, forever. :)

It's probably not going to be fixed. Volatility is likely an inherent property due to its limited supply.

https://bitflate.org/post/2020/05/10/bitcoin-volatility.html

[tehjoker]

How the heck would bitcoin volatility go down when there's no fixed reason to use it? USD has value despite fiat status because it's required to pay US taxes and oil markets are priced in USD (by force and trade agreement). Bitcoin is totally unteathered from reality (and deflationary which is another story entirely).

This means Bitcoin's value is based on completely ephemeral feelings, and the size of its network -- both things that can disappear overnight. The most solid thing you can say about it is that you can use it to get around government sanctions, which is not exactly high praise.

[capableweb]

> both things that can disappear overnight

I understand what you mean and it's true in theory, but could never happen in reality. Even if a lot of the world stops believing in Bitcoin and the price tanks, there will always be at least two people interested in trading it with each other. If those two people run one node each, they can make it happen.

Bitcoin can no longer disappear overnight. It was true in the beginning, but the network and mind-share is too big now.

> which is not exactly high praise

The market seems to value a independent and censorship proof currency differently than you, as those are two of the main features of Bitcoin and Bitcoin is seemingly receiving a lot of high praise, at least at the moment and past 7 years.

[tehjoker]

> Bitcoin can no longer disappear overnight. It was true in the beginning, but the network and mind-share is too big now.

This is what they said about the housing market in 2008. The question isn't whether bitcoin would operate at least 1 transaction, it's whether it is usable as a stable store of value or a large useful network.

> The market seems to value a independent and censorship proof currency differently than you, as those are two of the main features of Bitcoin and Bitcoin is seemingly receiving a lot of high praise, at least at the moment and past 7 years.

I meant morally, not financially. I suspect that multi-nationals are trying to become supranational entities and would be thrilled to be able to become more powerful and free from discipline from individual nations.

[capableweb]

The argument you made was (Bitcoin's value is based on...):

- completely ephemeral feelings

- the size of its network

And that both of those can disappear overnight.

Now you're changing the argument to if Bitcoin can be used for "a stable store of value" and if it's a "large useful network".

Then no, Bitcoin is currently not stable, it's pretty easy to see if you look at the fluctuation of the price. And yes, it is a useful, large network currently live in a production environment today. Sure, it has lots of problems, but since people are using it, we can consider it useful (at least to the people using it), otherwise people wouldn't use it.

The housing market in 2008 is hardly relevant to Bitcoin, as that market is controlled by larger entities that has power to decide things, ultimately the government. Bitcoin doesn't work like that, but I'm sure you're familiar with how Bitcoin works already, otherwise why would you discuss about it here?

The second argument you made was that "You can use Bitcoin to get around government sanctions" is the most "solid thing" you can say about Bitcoin, and that it's not exactly "high praise". The market clearly disagrees with you here, but then you think that it's more about "morals" than "financials". I agree with you here, but I say it's morally a good praise to be able to get around any restriction, especially since that was one of the original goals with Bitcoin. That Bitcoin set that as a goal, and still is achieving it after many years of attempts of being taken down, shows that the value the market assigns to Bitcoin is much closer to reality than what you think is the value of Bitcoin.

Overall, you are discussing in bad faith it seems. You're not interested in learning a new perspective, you're interested in converting others into your perspective, so unfortunately this conversation is not very fruitful. Take care.

[tehjoker]

> Now you're changing the argument to if Bitcoin can be used for "a stable store of value" and if it's a "large useful network".

The point of Bitcoin is to serve those purposes. My critique is that it cannot because it is based mostly on ephemeralities.

> The housing market in 2008 is hardly relevant to Bitcoin,

The housing market collapsed because of government inaction, not action. People valued CDOs as AAA rated when the actual underlying reality was worthless. Eventually reality caught up with us.

> That Bitcoin set that as a goal, and still is achieving it after many years of attempts of being taken down

This is agreed, incredibly technically successful. I do not agree that violating democratic rules is always a good thing, but I do see it as a good thing for countries that come under the gun of US imperialism such as Iran or Venezuela. However, in general, I am not a fan as the people that will use it the most are likely to be large corporate actors to escape any kind of accountability.

Censorship resistance is the only thing I can see in Bitcoin that is not ephemera.

[tim333]

>The question is ... whether it is usable as a stable store of value

Does it have to be stable? I doubt the people who invested at $100 are thinking shit it's gone to $50k I need something more stable.

[pmastela]

> This means Bitcoin's value is based on completely ephemeral feelings, and the size of its network -- both things that can disappear overnight.

Yet here we are in 2021. The ephemeral feelings to me are the memes that keep things like culture going as well as Bitcoin, and thanks to the Lindy Effect [1], everyday Bitcoin doesn't die, it grows stronger. If ever there was a time for Bitcoin to die, it would've been in its infancy days in 2009 -- yet here we are in 2021.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

[matheusmoreira]

> This means Bitcoin's value is based on completely ephemeral feelings

How is this different from any other asset? Value always disappears when people stop believing in it. People invest in company stock because they believe the company is valuable and will grow over time. Nobody wants to hold coins that lose value constantly. Governments have to literally force people to use their currencies by force of law.

[tehjoker]

What you described is a speculative asset (and something with inherent value). I hate to trot out the tired tulip analogy, but there's a difference between an item that people need and use practically and something that they just think is great b/c they think other people believe in it.

[kajumix]

High volatility is due not to supply, but to the trading volume. Like Taleb said, there is no long-term stability without short-term volatility.

[_7fvc]

Taleb changed his mind on this subject. :) I can see Bitcoin as a "stable" long-term Store of Value. Short-term, it's always volatile. It's not suitable as a Medium of Exchange.

[Black101]

volatility will disappear once BTC reaches it's final value...