The problem with this is it assumes the macroeconomic conditions stay constant. But the macroeconomic conditions since 2008/2009 have been wildly different than ever before.
This is almost 150 years of data. There were regimes with very different macroeconomic conditions (great depression, wars). However I do agree with you that there is a chance that we will see something even more exotic.
Your data is only for the US though. What happens if you try the Weimar Republic? That's an extreme case, but I imagine other countries have had similar, but less severe events, and certainly the US in in uncharted territory right now.