[matthalvorson]

I'd recommend the book Life 3.0, the author surveys a large number of AI researchers to answer this timing question (I think 95% said AGI is guaranteed in the next 50 years iirc), and also discusses why this time is different than the times in the past, like in the 60's when a group of researchers thought they would make significant progress towards AGI over the course of a summer

[jfk13]

I suspect that if someone asked the same questions a decade ago, or two, they'd have gotten similar explanations of why "this time is different".

AGI within the next 50 years? I don't think we have any idea, really. We don't even know what "intelligence" means.