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by ketamine__ 1928 days ago
Like when Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) posted a hash about some Covid nonsense he wanted to be right about?
1 comments

If it’s about releasing information on schedule that’s verifiably created with a datetime stamp and maybe also by user, then it’s not really about predictions, it’s more than that. It could be used for any info, and then verification is available for the who and when.

The thing though that would make this worthwhile would be if it were decentralized, because you want universal verification and independence of some third-party breaking if its like a contract. While they could act as a law office or official records office that keeps the contract, deed, or certificate on-file, I’d not keep the only copy of something important with a startup that could go out of business and has no requirement to keep my data or secure its future, so I’d hope there’s something for that.

Honestly (and I hate saying this) but you could stick the hashes in a public blockchain and get clients to verify. But of course this would cost money and any Merkle tree would do, but I can’t believe I just non-ironically suggested a blockchain for something.
Ha, I was literally thinking the same thing. This bizarrely might be something suitable for a public blockchain and its not using it.
Keybase does something similar by sticking the Merkle tree root of hashes of signatures in the bitcoin blockchain: https://book.keybase.io/docs/crypto
Not sure if anyone is doing that as a service now but the old methods like post it to yourself in a sealed envelope or email are just as legally binding (ie not binding at all in any way) as the most sophisticated hashed blockchain you can throw at the problem today. There's a reason lawyers use signatures on paper over registered mail. We are talking about a part of the law where the last technical advance was to accept Fax Machines.