[bartread]

I don't know.

For complex desktop apps I don't really think Java was a viable option until the 1.3 release in 2000 (from memory). You also always had that problem that you couldn't guarantee what version of Java somebody would have installed so you'd have to bundle whatever JRE version you needed into the installer. Deployment was always a challenge.

In the browser Java never really got past 1.1 because Sun and Microsoft fell out so you had to install a separate plugin, which almost nobody did, or just live within the restrictions of AWT.

Couple this with the fact that, as you've pointed out, Java Web Start was so late to the party and it's easy to see why it didn't do better, either on the desktop or in the browser.

Until Android came along I really thought Java was a dying technology platform. Obviously since then its fortunes have significantly improved.