[Apocryphon]

Those were all existential civil wars, though. Those wars threatened core territory and were very much in the face of the people involved. Those wars determined the fates of those nations far more than securing one wayward province. And both the ACW and the Vietnam War had its share of war protesters and resisters who were morally opposed or didn't see a reason to get involved.

An aggressive war on Taiwan would couple the conflicted feelings of a fraternal struggle with the civilian comfort of America's Cold War and War on Terror imperial adventures. Would middle class Chinese in the big coastal cities be completely fine with seeing or at least hearing about people pretty much just like them getting bombed across the Strait? Or would they view it as an unnecessary, gratuitous, extravagant, waste of life and treasure?

[nsonha]

You brought up a good point. The Vietnam War (I kept using this example because I'm from Vietnam myself) happened because the North who pushed for it was poor and misled with propaganda.

With China and Taiwan, both are well-off and their citizens would not need to risk their livelihood if not necessary.

However, China seems to be following the path of America who's such a powerful bully that they can start wars left and right without any retaliation on their soil, save for 9/11. If that's the case, this logic won't apply at least to the China side, and again, propaganda.

[Apocryphon]

Yeah, China attacking Taiwan unprompted would have shades of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Throwing around hegemonic weight. I just wonder if the common people will have different opinions of it from the government's. The distance between the two countries is far less than the distance between the U.S. and the Middle East.