[wccrawford]

I think examples like this are a lot more helpful than people trying to use logic to make their argument. It's a real-world scenario that actually worked, with results that should temper expectations.

The other one I saw here was someone who is now a junior developer after a few years. That's reasonable, IMO.

My impression of people wanting to switch careers is that they expect to be as proficient in the new career as they were the old one in just a short time, perhaps just after some training/college. It's not reasonable at all.

My standard advice to someone who wants to have a career in programming is to start programming. If you don't actually like it, then you really should consider something else. But if you love it, it'll be hard to stop you from being successful with it.