[matwood]

I see probabilistic accounting for unknowns. An 80% chance would have some a small amount of unknown, so if the task was 3 points, I would bump it to a 5 to account for the known. And, since points are not linear, the larger task automatically grows proportionally, i.e. 8 -> 13.

[giulianob]

Points are flawed. Whether you have them grow linear, exponentially, or fibonacci doesn't make a difference. The fundamentals are flawed. They cover it in their videos and in more depth their talks/books.

[UK-Al05]

Monte Carlo estimations and probabilistic estimates take longer to do.

I don't know how they do it, but you used to have to group stories to stories of similar effort done in the past in order for the simulation to take into account story size. Otherwise your model will be effected by things like stories in different components taking more effort to do.

Putting stories into rough size pots is essentially what pointing is.