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by wcarss 1931 days ago
This mostly makes sense if real estate is already fully utilised, but it isn't.

I can't speak to India, but there's a feeling broadly in North America of having "new development" and "expansion" over time. Cities are much, much larger now than they were 40 years ago, and people imagine that the new farm land subsumed and developed should be available for a similar price relative to income to what it was 'back then'.

The XXX-acre rural farmland wasn't as valuable as the same space in town when purchased as a lot, but now it holds as many homes as that downtown space used to. Is it worth the same today, relatively, as that space was then? No, they're both worth comparatively way, way more than they were.

I don't mean to suggest that scarcity isn't a part of the equation here, more that there are a lot complex factors involved, e.g. wage levels relative to inflation over time.

3 comments

You're right of course, that it's more complex than just land scarcity. But I feel like people sometimes have this strange default sense that something is wrong if things don't stay the same. "My dad fixed diesel engines and provided for a family of 5, so I ought to be able to do the same thing". Well, your dad lived in a different time. You can't be a Holy Roman warrior anymore, and there's also a chance you might not be able to make a good career at being a diesel mechanic at this point.

Sort of like when you have kids and see them everyday, you only vaguely notice them growing up because the change from day-to-day is so subtle? But when the extended family visits once a year, they notice a huge change? The world is constantly changing like that...you might not notice that today is different from yesterday, but today is drastically different from when your parents were your age.

> The XXX-acre rural farmland wasn't as valuable as the same space in town when purchased as a lot, but now it holds as many homes as that downtown space used to. Is it worth the same today, relatively, as that space was then?

Yes, they are. It's hard to make a direct comparison, because falling interest rates have caused housing prices to go up, and as people have gained income they have chosen to buy much bigger houses. But the per square foot price of a median-sized new home has been stagnant at the $100-120 range (based on CPI) since 1973: https://donsnotes.com/financial/real-estate.html. And falling interest rates have meant that the monthly mortgage payment per square foot has actually gone down over that time.

Real estate is only expensive in the highly utilized areas.