Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by tomjen3 5488 days ago
The problem with this is always that they are "a few years away", or that we can run the entire economy from biofuels "in ten to twenty years".

It has been going on for what, 20 years now? It is never going to change until we ignore them until they actually bring about their ideas.
2 comments
ebiester 5488 days ago
Yes, but in the last 30 years, we've went from prohibitively expensive 4.5% efficency cells in 1954 and $1500/watt in 1955 to a test 500kW installation in 1977 to $9.00 in 2007 to, in an ideal situation, 8.5 cents per KWH today.

http://inventors.about.com/od/timelines/a/Photovoltaics.htm http://greenecon.net/understanding-the-cost-of-solar-energy/... http://www.reddit.com/r/Frugal/comments/hn7jn/while_were_on_...

We could start building a 100% solar/nuclear solution in the US today. The technology is there, and it would only be the construction time. Our energy costs would go up, but not significantly. However, if the technology keeps on this curve, unsubsidized solar will be cheaper than coal soon.

We aren't doing this today because the power companies know that the curve is coming soon. Why invest prematurely, outside basic research projects?

link
danielharan 5488 days ago
Upvoted. Same with Wind. Learning curves are bringing costs down below that of coal and nuclear.

Solar is already in plenty of niches - from highway signage to parking kiosks. Every niche helps increase production, which reduces price per unit.

This is why I support subsidies - unlike for oil or nuclear, they're actually working to get costs down.

link
elbrodeur 5488 days ago
It's expensive to make things cheap. Usually when something becomes cheap quickly it's because demand is high and producing that thing is less expensive. In the case of new energy sources, reaching parity with the grid is very difficult: Not only are technologies like coal already operating at scale, they are also subsidized by the government.

If there was a strong public demand for renewables grid parity wouldn't be that far off. Unfortunately, we're a little too obsessed with other things at the moment, like politicians posting lewd photos online or which television shows to DVR.

link