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by imtringued 1942 days ago
They are pretty weak points. By his logic, when you join a company and work you are speculating that you will get paid a salary. At that point everything is speculation and nothing is certain. By writing this comment I am speculating that a HTTP call will be made that results in a database entry. Since humans are not perfect and never have complete information about a system they engage in speculation in every single moment of their life. The comment is effectively value neutral or maybe even net negative and merely criticizes terminology and semantics, not the actual topic itself.

Namely Bitcoin generates no returns but everyone expects it to. Since everything is speculation we are still allowed to rate the speculation by how risky it is. Surviving long enough to finish writing this comment has a 99.9999% chance or more. So this type of speculation isn't risky at all. Meanwhile betting that Bitcoin will go up or down is inherently risky since there is no driving force behind Bitcoin other than human behavior itself.
3 comments
anonisko 1942 days ago
Everything is speculation.

My ultimate point with the comment above, is that dismissing bitcoin as nothing more that a rampant speculative bubble is not a good argument against it.

Everything we value is a speculative bubble that can eventually pop if conditions that cause us to value it change. The bitcoin bubble can pop (and has many times) but so can the 'trust in the US government' bubble.

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ldbooth 1942 days ago
Bitcoin is a genius trust system. But if the price gains are based on demand created by financial leverage, it can be both genius and a bubble due to leverage and short term price distortion. If interest rates go up, BTC prices will fall despite the 'inflation protection' argument. Long term, the proponents make good point sans undermining US financial sanctions, the best no war big stick the US has.
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briefcomment 1942 days ago
> "there is no driving force behind Bitcoin other than human behavior itself"

That human behavior is more reliable than anything else when you're working with a Nash equilibrium

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krageon 1942 days ago
> everything is speculation

You've reduced his argument to ridiculousness. That's kind of low-effort, so in that spirit: It's true, nothing is in fact certain. Telling yourself otherwise is a convention that makes it easier to live and be resilient.

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