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by anonisko
1940 days ago
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Farmland is a speculation that we won't completely degrade the topsoil that makes it useful for agriculture. Exxon Mobile is a speculation that they'll be able to pivot their business out of carbon fuel long term. Even monster companies falter and fail. Exxon in particular is down 50% from its peak in 2014. Income generating assets are fantastic, but owning them requires work to constantly re-assess the landscape that makes them capable of generating income. Some people like Buffett are really good at that game. Winners like him start to win even more when they have hundreds of billions of wealth to slosh around which gives them the power to create self fulfilling prophecies with their investments that you and I don't have individually. This is why people have started using passive index funds as savings accounts, which seems to be starting to distort the market and has a lot of people worried that it will lead to a housing bubble like crash, especially with Boomers withdrawing their retirement savings from the market while Millennials and Gen X might not earn enough to outpace the withdrawals. A demographic bomb. Do we really want a world where doctors feel compelled to waste valuable time and attention playing the stock market game because a savings account doesn't even pretend to protect your money from inflation anymore? People from all walks of life with money to protect are increasingly riddled with anxiety that the wealth they've worked hard to save is getting washed out from under them, and it's making us all a neurotic mess of a society. |
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That merely reduces the potential return, it doesn't eliminate the potential for return entirely, which is something Bitcoin suffers from.
>Exxon Mobile is a speculation that they'll be able to pivot their business out of carbon fuel long term. Even monster companies falter and fail. Exxon in particular is down 50% from its peak in 2014.
Or I can just buy their stock with the expectation that they pay dividends or engage in stock buyback programs that return value to investors. Bitcoin has no potential for returns.
>Income generating assets are fantastic, but owning them requires work to constantly re-assess the landscape that makes them capable of generating income.
The inability to generate a return reduces the potential for gains significantly.
>This is why people have started using passive index funds as savings accounts, which seems to be starting to distort the market
There are thousands of index funds using completely different strategies. I don't know how you expect that to distort the market. The reason why small retail investors should just stick with a standard index is that they simply do not have high enough capital and thus returns to justify spending money or time on complex analysis or engage in manual rebalancing of their portfolio which involves taxes and order fees. Index replicating ETF are just a cost saving strategy for small investors. If you believe that small investors are distorting the market then institutional funds would rejoice and take advantage of the greater volatility and deploy more capital because of the almost risk free return that such a "distortion" would bring with itself. Since the return of a managed fund exceeds the return of an algorithmic fund people would switch their strategy until both strategies have an equal return on investment.
>and has a lot of people worried that it will lead to a housing bubble like crash
If a lot of people are worried about a crash then why are they investing in a way that perpetuates a crash? They would have to blame themselves for their risky strategies. Stop getting interest only mortgages. Stop buying GME. Stop buying Bitcoin and so on.
>especially with Boomers withdrawing their retirement savings from the market while Millennials and Gen X might not earn enough to outpace the withdrawals. A demographic bomb.
You mean well deserved inflation and full employment? Who is going to shed a tear because of that? Are Millenials going to complain to Boomers that they gave them too many jobs and too much pay?
>Do we really want a world where doctors feel compelled to waste valuable time and attention playing the stock market game because a savings account doesn't even pretend to protect your money from inflation anymore? People from all walks of life with money to protect are increasingly riddled with anxiety that the wealth they've worked hard to save is getting washed out from under them, and it's making us all a neurotic mess of a society.
You can send your complaints to your central bank. They are following a pretty stupid strategy that is counterproductive to their own declared goals. It's pretty simple, if the supply side is saturated simply stimulate the demand side (fiscal policy). Supply and demand have to be kept in balance. It's pretty ironic how Bitcoin anti inflation warriors complain how inflation erodes savings yet they are eroding even faster in a low inflation economy.