| Investing and poker have some fun commonalities. One that I want to focus one in this particular case is: always play the game you know well and know how you're going to win it [nuances, 0] In Poker: find the fish, understand why they're fish and exploit it [example, 1]. In investing: find underpriced assets, understand why they're underpriced and exploit it [examples, 2, 3]. From this perspective, Buffett doesn't understand how price movement works in tech companies. And that's ok. [0] You can't win everything of course, but if you're going to play a losing game by default then you're basically buying information. Once you have enough information, then it's all about execution. I daresay that Warren Buffett has enough information on a particular method of successful investing. That's all he needs, so he needs to focus on games that he knows how to win. [1] E.g. through math/theory or math/data -- if you can get your hands on it -- (random player vs tight aggressive player) [2] E.g. through math/theory or math/data (population will grow to 11 Billion --> economic productivity will therefore grow because bigger global work force --> world economy will grow in the long-term) [3] Buffett's famous example is of course his own brand of value investing. The central thesis of value investing is: if a company is going to close shop, the scrap value of that company will be higher than the market cap of that company. There's a lot more to it, but that's the gist of it. One nuance, for example, is that you then try to pick the companies that are the most severely underpriced, have amazing management and a solid competitive domination strategy (e.g. crazy brand recognition or a certain asset that has a really high barrier of entry). |
For someone who allegedly doesn't understand that the recent $89bn gain on Apple stock is nice going. Luck perhaps?
Incidentally he's also talked about poker as a model for investing. After telling the Mr Market story in the 1987 letter he goes on:
>But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don't belong in the game. As they say in poker, "If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy."