[outoftheabyss]

Is Buffett really still the gold standard, Berkshire has been outdone by the s and p 10 year rolling average over the last evade and that was true before the pandemic.

I get that 20% annual returns aren’t sustainable as you get into managing hundreds of billions but it seems to me the make up of the market has changed dramatically over the 2010s and Buffett hasn’t adapted or evolved.

[mxschumacher]

when using the S&P500 as a yardstick, we have to remind ourselves what environment we are living in. Interest rates are very low (though this is currently changing) and equity valuations are at or close to all time highs both in absolute an relative terms.

Berkshire generates more operating profit than Salesforce has revenue; it generates 6x more profit than Nvidia and those numbers ignore both the gigantic stock portfolio and the cash position.

Valuations will eventually trend back to historical norms. Given that GDP is relatively stagnant (there is modest growth in real terms), it is impossible for all of these companies to grow indefinitely.

Both before the .com crash and the 2008 financial crisis lots of companies have vastly outperformed Berkshire, a wave of bankruptcies and 95% declines ensued.

[jcims]

Given the shape of those two curves I’d give it a bit more time before counting Buffet out.