[pinky1417]

I interpreted the author’s discussion of the “right” long-term mindset to mean that, in the absence of evidence to the contrary, it makes more sense to be optimistic than pessimistic about the future.

Personally, based on the past performance of humanity, I expect the long-term future of the globe to be better than the past. It’s based on informed speculation: Hans Rosling’s Factfulness is relevant here. Sure, we might obliterate ourselves with nukes or destroy the world with greenhouse gas emissions, but I’m not going to operate under the assumption that we won’t figure things out and that WILL happen.

As an investor, I share Buffett’s optimism about the future of America. Yes, we have many many fundamental challenges. Yes, it’s possible that, if you put all your money in a broad US market index today, your returns might be negative until a decade or two later. But I’ll continue to bet on America’s continued existence and success (albeit by picking assets I think are undervalued rather than the current price of the stock market).

In other words, I think it’s rational to optimistically speculate that (1) America will continue to be an economic powerhouse and (2) price will eventually converge to value for most assets.