[raws]

2¹⁰⁴*e-²2/(104!)=2.66523e−136 If annual occurence is 2 and it happens twice every week in a year. But it has not so far :)

Weekly occurence of 0 has 13.5% chance of happening this being the case for 7 weeks before this last 8th 2021, 13.5*7/8= 11.8% so far.

But I'm no statistician.

[jojobas]

I've run the numbers here

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx

At a weekly probability of 0.04 (2 failures/52 weeks) the probability of 2 failures within a week is 0.077%. The probability of 0 failures in a week is 96%.

Accounting or halving of flight frequency it's 0.02% and 98% respectively.

[raws]

Oh right k for a week is not 2 but 2/52!